S&P Global Mobility: August sales - big volume, but little change to underlying dynamics
August US sales volume is expected to be one of the largest of the year, given 28 selling days and the inclusion of Labor Day weekend activity; but sales are still searching for the next gear
SOUTHFIELD, Mich., Aug. 27, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- On a volume estimate of 1.42 million units, S&P Global Mobility expects US light vehicle sales in August to be up more than 7% year over year and grow more than 11% from the month-prior level. This translates to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.2 million units, a moderate reading in a market continuing to wait for sales levels to advance more strongly.
"New vehicle affordability remains the biggest obstacle preventing further advances in the pace of auto sales," said Chris Hopson, principal analyst at S&P Global Mobility. "The current environment of still-high interest rates and slow-to-recede vehicle prices are translating to still-high monthly payments and little progress for new vehicle demand levels."
Continued advances in inventories and incentives are expected over the remainder of the year—two levers necessary for affordability issues to ease and sales to progress. But recent developments reflect some volatility for both metrics.
According to Matt Trommer, associate director, S&P Global Mobility, "Analysis of July retail advertised inventory data in the US finds that inventory declined compared to month-end June reporting, the first month-over-month drop since May 2023. Available retail advertised inventory at the end of July was up 52.5% compared to last year, but down 2.3% from June 2024."
US Light Vehicle Sales | ||||
Aug 24 (Est) | July 24 | Aug 23 | ||
Total Light Vehicle | Units, NSA | 1,422,000 | 1,273,115 | 1,318,588 |
In millions, SAAR | 15.2 | 15.8 | 15.3 | |
Light Truck | In millions, SAAR | 12.4 | 12.8 | 12.2 |
Passenger Car | In millions, SAAR | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.1 |
Source: S&P Global Mobility (Est), U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis | ||||
Strong development of battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales remains an assumption in the longer term S&P Global Mobility light vehicle sales forecast. In the immediate term, moderate month-to-month volatility is anticipated. August BEV share is expected to reach 8.1%, similar to the month-prior reading and continued advancement from the Q1 2024 results.
BEV share is expected to progress over the next several months, continuing the upward trend realized since April 2024, assisted by the roll outs of vehicles such as the Chevrolet Equinox EV and Honda Prologue, followed by new BEVs such as the Jeep Wagoneer S and Volkswagen ID. Buzz slated for release in the second half of 2024.
About S&P Global Mobility
At S&P Global Mobility, we provide invaluable insights derived from unmatched automotive data, enabling our customers to anticipate change and make decisions with conviction. Our expertise helps them to optimize their businesses, reach the right consumers, and shape the future of mobility. We open the door to automotive innovation, revealing the buying patterns of today and helping customers plan for the emerging technologies of tomorrow.
S&P Global Mobility is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI). S&P Global is the world's foremost provider of credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity, and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help many of the world's leading organizations navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow, today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com/mobility.
Media Contact:
Michelle Culver
S&P Global Mobility
248.728.7496 or 248.342.6211
Michelle.culver@spglobal.com
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SOURCE S&P Global Mobility
